Category: UK House Price Prediction

Economic summary

News

The economic picture has been mixed since the last post. GDP grew just 0.1% in Q4 2025, capping a full-year figure of 1.3% (positive), but below the OBR’s 1.5% forecast. The labour market has softened noticeably: unemployment climbed to 5.2% in the three months to December, its highest since early 2021, with youth unemployment particularly stark at 16%. CPI inflation, however, offered some relief, falling to 3.0% in January from 3.4% in December, and the Bank of England expects it to return to around the 2% target by mid-year. The MPC held Bank Rate at 3.75% in February, but only just… a narrow 5–4 vote that was more dovish than markets expected, and a March cut is now widely anticipated. Looking ahead, forward-looking indicators have been surprisingly upbeat: the flash composite PMI hit 53.9 in February (a 22-month high), retail sales posted their fastest annual growth in nearly four years in January, and the government recorded a record budget surplus ahead of the Chancellor’s Spring Statement on 3 March.

Indicators

• Average house prices decreased very slightly to £270k on the previous month
• Mortgage rates for 75 % LTV and 95 % LTV continues to decrease

Current growth rates

Momentum remains concentrated in the north and the devolved nations. Northern Ireland leads the regional table at +7.5% over the past 12 months, followed by Wales (+5.0%), Scotland (+4.9%), the North East (+4.6%) and the North West (+4.5%). The midlands and Yorkshire sit in the mid-single digits, while the southern regions lag well behind — London is in outright decline at −1.0%, the South East is flat (−0.0%) and the South West barely positive at +0.3%. On a five-year annualised view the picture is broadly similar: Northern Ireland (+7.0% p.a.) and the North West (+5.2% p.a.) top the table, while the South East (+2.2% p.a.) and East of England (+2.4% p.a.) bring up the rear.

The affordability chart helps explain this divergence. The national home-affordability factor has drifted back down close to its long-run average after the sharp spike in 2021–22, but the regional spread remains wide. London, despite its price correction, is still far less affordable than anywhere else, sitting around 14× weekly earnings — down from nearly 18× at its peak but still well above the national average of roughly 9×. By contrast, the North East, Scotland and Northern Ireland remain among the most affordable regions, leaving considerably more headroom for price growth before affordability becomes a binding constraint.

At the local level, current 12-month growth (to 2025-12-01) is sharply polarised. The strongest performers are Newry, Mourne & Down (+12.4%), Northumberland (+10.8%), South Lanarkshire (+10.3%), Stafford (+9.9%) and East Cambridgeshire (+9.8%) – A mix of Northern Irish, Scottish and English authorities spread across several regions, suggesting the gains aren’t confined to a single market. The weakest are dominated by London boroughs: Camden (−11.1%), Tower Hamlets (−10.9%) and Hammersmith & Fulham (−9.5%) all posted double-digit declines, alongside the City of Aberdeen (−7.4%) and Cotswold (−6.8%). The gap between the best and worst is now over 23 percentage points.

Firstly, apologies it’s been so long since I last posted. I’ve been working hard on improving the model and the pipeline that feeds into it. A lot has happened since I last posted, so lets get started…

Economic summary

News

So what’s been happening in that time… The big story has been a gradual easing in the inflation shock alongside weak (but positive) growth, which has allowed the Bank of England to pivot towards rate cuts. The MPC held Bank Rate at 4% in early November, then cut it by 0.25pp to 3.75% in mid-December, stressing that any further reductions would be guided by incoming data. Over the same period, inflation fell to 3.2% in November before edging up to 3.4% in December. Activity has remained, GDP rose 0.1% in Q3 2025 and monthly GDP grew 0.1% in November, but early January surveys suggested momentum improved, with the flash PMI rising to 53.9.

Indicators

• Average house prices increased very slightly to £271k on the previous month
• Mortgage rates for 75 % LTV and 95 % LTV both decreased on the previous month

Current growth rates

Momentum remains concentrated in the North, with northern regions featuring most prominently among the strongest performers on both a one-year and five-year view. Northern Ireland records the fastest longer-term growth at +6.7% p.a. (5yr annualised), while the North East leads on the latest 12-month measure at +6.8% (1yr).

On a local level current 12-month house price growth (to 2025-11-01) is sharply polarised. The strongest performers are East Cambridgeshire (+12.5%), followed by Derry City and Strabane (+9.6%), South Lanarkshire (+9.4%), North East Derbyshire (+9.3%) and Vale of White Horse (+9.2%), indicating robust gains spread across several regions. At the other end of the spectrum, declines are dominated by London boroughs: Tower Hamlets (−10.6%) is the weakest, with further falls in Cotswold (−8.4%), Brent (−7.8%), Camden (−7.8%) and Hammersmith and Fulham (−7.1%). Overall, the gap between the top and bottom locations is sizeable at 23.1 percentage points, underscoring very uneven local market conditions.

Predictions

Overall

The forecast assumes a gentle recovery from about £270k (Dec-25) to ~£268k (1yr), ~£280k (2yr) and ~£295k (5yr), roughly +9% over five years (~2% p.a.), which is a fairly subdued growth path. Notably, the model expects a slight dip before prices regain momentum, and the widening confidence interval beyond 2028 highlights the increasing uncertainty at longer horizons.

Regional

Short term (1 year): Most regions are forecast to grow around 2–6% over the next year, with the North East (6.3%), Northern Ireland (5.8%) and the North West (4.9%) leading the way. London is the clear outlier, with the model predicting a further 1.5% decline overall and sharper falls for flats (−4.8%) and detached homes (−8.4%).

Medium term (2–3 years): By two years, the majority of regions cluster around 3–6% cumulative growth, and by three years most sit in the 5–10% range — a broad-based but unspectacular recovery. London remains the laggard, still forecast to be down at the two-year mark (−4.6% overall) and only clawing back to roughly flat by year three, with detached properties particularly weak.

Long term (4–5 years): At the five-year horizon most regions converge toward 10–20% cumulative growth, led by the North East (19%), Yorkshire (13%) and Northern Ireland (17%). London eventually turns positive but trails significantly at around 15% overall, while Scotland (10%) and Wales (7%) also sit at the lower end — and across all regions, flats consistently underperform houses, suggesting the post-pandemic space premium persists.

Local

12-month prediction (to 2026-12-01)

The strongest 1-year gains are concentrated in Northern Ireland and the North East — Newry, Mourne & Down leads at +9%, followed by East Cambridgeshire (East of England, +8.5%), Northumberland (North East, +7.4%), Causeway Coast & Glens (Northern Ireland, +7%) and East Ayrshire (Scotland, +7%). The weakest areas are overwhelmingly London boroughs: Tower Hamlets (−4.2%), Hammersmith & Fulham (−3.8%) and Camden (−2.6%), with Worthing (South East, −1.8%) the only non-London entry in the bottom five. The model is calling a sharp near-term split, with affordable northern and devolved-nation markets pulling further ahead while parts of London continue to correct.

24-month prediction (to 2027-12-01)

At two years, the top five are dominated by Northern Ireland — Newry, Mourne & Down (+10%), Causeway Coast & Glens (+7.9%) and Mid & East Antrim (+7.6%) all feature, alongside East Cambridgeshire (East of England, +9.5%) and Northumberland (North East, +7.9%). The bottom five are now exclusively London: Tower Hamlets (−4.1%), Hammersmith & Fulham (−4%), Camden (−2.7%), Brent (−2.3%) and Newham (−1.6%). The model expects persistent underperformance in specific London boroughs even over two years, while Northern Irish authorities continue to dominate the leaderboard.

60-month prediction (to 2030-12-01)

By five years the leaders rotate slightly — Newry, Mourne & Down (Northern Ireland, +18.9%), East Cambridgeshire (East of England, +18.6%) and Northumberland (North East, +18.4%) hold their positions, but Vale of White Horse (South East, +17.1%) enters the top five, suggesting some long-run resilience in parts of the South East. The laggards are now all positive but trail significantly: Tower Hamlets (London, +2.2%), Hammersmith & Fulham (London, +3.1%), Pembrokeshire (Wales, +4.3%), Camden (London, +4.4%) and City of Aberdeen (Scotland, +5.1%). Across all three horizons, Newry, Mourne & Down and East Cambridgeshire appear consistently at the top, while Tower Hamlets and Hammersmith & Fulham repeatedly anchor the bottom — a remarkably stable pattern.

The overall picture is one of moderate, broad-based recovery, not a boom, with average UK prices forecast to edge up roughly 2% a year over the next five years. The dominant theme remains a north–south and affordability-driven split: cheaper, more affordable regions like Northern Ireland, the North East and parts of Scotland continue to outperform, while London, particularly its flat-heavy boroughs faces a prolonged period of underperformance before eventually returning to modest positive growth. Rate cuts, when they come, should provide a tailwind, but with unemployment rising and household incomes under pressure, the model sees no catalyst for a sharp acceleration. As always, these are model outputs, not certainties. The widening confidence intervals at longer horizons are a useful reminder that the further out you look, the less anyone really knows.

Economic summary

News

Over the past month, the UK backdrop has been mixed-to-soft: inflation stalled at 3.8% in August, prompting the Bank of England on 17 September to hold Bank Rate at 4% (with two members voting for a cut) while continuing to run down gilt holdings.

Growth flatlined in July (0.0% m/m), with production falling and only slight gains in services and construction, and early September survey data point to a sharp loss of momentum as the flash composite PMI slipped to 51.0 from 53.5.

The labour market has loosened further, with unemployment rising to 4.7% in May–July and payrolled employment edging lower on early estimates. Public finances worsened, with August borrowing at £18.0bn, above both last year and OBR projections.

Indicators

• Average house prices increased very slightly to £270k
• Mortgage rates for 60 % LTV and 95 % LTV both decreased on the previous month

Current growth rates

The hottest local markets are clustered in the North East and Scotland: Sunderland leads with annual price growth of 12.7%, followed by Renfrewshire (11.0%), Perth & Kinross (10.8%), County Durham (10.4%) and Halton (10.2%). At the other end, weakness is concentrated in London and the South East: Eastbourne is the steepest faller at –10.5%, while Wandsworth (–6.4%), Hammersmith & Fulham (–5.3%), Barnet (–4.7%) and Brent (–4.7%) are also in decline. In short, growth is strongest across northern and Scottish authorities, while several London boroughs are still sliding.

Affordabilty of housing

Affordability has improved from its 2022 worst but remains stretched: the national HAF (price ÷ median annual pay) sits a touch above its long-run average. London is still the clear outlier, now around the mid-teens on the HAF, down from its peak but far higher than anywhere else, followed by the South East/East/South West in the ~10–12 range. The Midlands, North and devolved nations cluster lower at ~6–8, with the North East at the affordable end near ~6 and Northern Ireland mid-pack. The South–North affordability gap, which peaked around ~2.1–2.2 in the late 2010s, has narrowed steadily since 2022 to roughly ~1.7–1.8—homes are still less affordable in the South, but the differential is clearly shrinking.

Predictions

Overall

The model points to modest nominal growth from a current c. £270k to £274k in 1 year, £282k in 2 years and ~£296k in 5 years, implying roughly 1–2% a year—a gentle grind higher rather than a surge.

Regional

Short term (next 12 months). The model has the UK drifting higher at low-single-digit rates, led by the North East (~+2.5%), North West (~+3%), West & East Midlands (~+2½–3%), Wales (~+2½%) and Yorkshire & Humber (~+2½%); the South West is a touch firmer (~+2–3%). London is the weak spot (about –2% overall, with flats ~–2% to –2½%), while the South East/East of England are broadly flat-to-+1%.

Medium term (2–3 years). Momentum broadens with cumulative gains of ~6–9% across the North & Midlands (NE, NW, Y&H, West Mids), ~6–7% in the South West and ~6–9% in Wales/Northern Ireland; Scotland is steadier at ~3–4%. London remains roughly flat to slightly negative over this horizon (flats weakest), and the South East/East of England notch ~3–5%.

Long term (5 years). The strongest cumulative rises are projected in Northern Ireland (~+18%), the North East/North West (~+15%) and Yorkshire & Humber (~+14%), with the West/East Midlands in the ~+10–12% range and the South West/Wales around ~+9–13%. The South East/East of England are softer (~+5–7%), and London is essentially flat overall (~–1%), with a clear mix by type: flats negative, while detached/semi-detached eke out small gains.

Local

12-month outlook (to 2026-07-01). The model’s top risers are Oldham (North West, +7.17%), Warwick (West Midlands, +5.58%), Chelmsford (East of England, +5.15%), Bromley (London, +5.01%) and Knowsley (North West, +4.60%), a broadly northern/Midlands tilt with a couple of southern outliers. The weakest are heavily concentrated in Scotland and London: South Ayrshire (–8.56%), City of Aberdeen (–7.41%), Brent (–7.35%), Tower Hamlets (–6.12%) and Aberdeenshire (–5.85%).

24-month outlook (to 2027-07-01). Strength stays focused in the North West and nearby: Oldham (+11.03%), Warrington (+8.74%), Cheshire East (+8.41%), Knowsley (+8.37%), with Warwick (West Midlands, +9.76%) also prominent. The laggards are again London/Scotland heavy—Tower Hamlets (–9.92%), City of Aberdeen (–10.49%), South Ayrshire (–8.11%), Barnet (–6.98%) and Hammersmith & Fulham (–6.48%)—suggesting continued south-eastern and North Sea-exposed softness.

60-month outlook (to 2030-07-01). The biggest cumulative gains cluster in the North West and Northern Ireland: Oldham (+26.16%), Knowsley (+22.37%), Bolton (+21.84%), plus Ards & North Down (+23.90%) and Lisburn & Castlereagh (+20.58%). The deepest projected declines are concentrated in London and Scotland—Tower Hamlets (–19.71%), Barnet (–8.79%), Sutton (–6.22%), City of Aberdeen (–21.34%) and South Ayrshire (–6.08%)—highlighting the model’s expectation of a prolonged divergence. Uncertainty is greatest at this horizon (wide CIs), so these should be viewed as directional signals, and to be taken with a big pinch of salt.

Economic summary

News

Over the past month the UK backdrop has been one of cautious improvement with nagging price pressures: the Bank of England trimmed Bank Rate by 0.25pp to 4% on 7 August, citing progress in underlying disinflation, even as July CPI re-accelerated to 3.8% and CPIH to 4.2% on dearer air fares and fuel.

Activity looks patchy: GDP rose 0.4% in June, while the August flash PMI hit a 12-month high (Composite 53.0) on services strength even as manufacturing stayed in contraction.

The labour market continues to loosen — unemployment edged up to 4.7% in April–June and vacancies fell — helping cool pay growth. Public finances offered a small respite, with borrowing in July just £1.1bn, below the OBR’s March forecast. Against this blend of lower rates, sticky services inflation and softer hiring, housing-adjacent indicators are mixed:

Indicators

• Average house prices increased slightly, though still held steady at £269k
• Mortgage rates for 60 % LTV and 95 % LTV have both decreased on the previous month

Current growth rates

Over the year to June 2025, price momentum is skewed towards Scotland and selected towns outside the big cities: Tunbridge Wells leads at +13.16% (a South-East exception), followed by Perth & Kinross (+12.25%), Renfrewshire (+11.76%), Rotherham (+9.91%) and Halton (+9.85%). At the other end, London and southern coastal/rural markets are softening: Wandsworth (–6.99%) is weakest, with Eastbourne (–5.87%), South Hams (–5.80%), Barnet (–5.52%) and Hackney (–5.35%) also in decline. The near 20.2-ppt gap between best and worst underlines a market tilting towards more affordable regional areas while pricier London and southern locations continue to drift.

Predictions

Overall

The model suggests only modest nominal growth in UK house prices, edging up from the current c. £269k to roughly £271k in one year and £282k in two years, before reaching about £300k in five years.

Regional

Short term (1 year): Most regions are flat-to-mildly positive, led by Wales (c. 2.9 per cent), Scotland (c. 2.9 per cent) and Northern Ireland (c. 2.0 per cent), with the Midlands and North West also nudging up. Laggards are London (c. –1.8 per cent), the South East (c. –0.1 per cent) and the North East (c. –0.3 per cent), underscoring softness in higher-cost southern markets.

Medium term (2–3 years): Growth broadens, led by Northern Ireland (c. 7.9 per cent at two years; c. 13.0 per cent at three), Wales (c. 7.4 per cent; c. 10.0 per cent), the North West (c. 5.6 per cent; c. 9.0 per cent) and Scotland (c. 6.7 per cent; c. 9.0 per cent), with the North East improving (c. 3.9 per cent; c. 7.0 per cent). By contrast, London barely advances (c. –0.2 per cent; c. 1.0 per cent) and the South East/East of England remain subdued (c. 4.0 per cent by year three).

Long term (4–5 years): By year five the strongest cumulative gains are in Northern Ireland (c. 21 per cent), with North West, Wales and Yorkshire & the Humber each around (c. 15 per cent); Scotland is (c. 13 per cent) and the East/West Midlands (c. 12 per cent). The South West sits near (c. 11 per cent), the South East and East of England around (c. 7 per cent), while London remains the clear underperformer (c. –1 per cent at year four; c. 1 per cent by year five).

Local

For the next 12 months, the model’s leaders are Gwynedd (Wales, c. 4.42 per cent), Bromley (London, c. 4.22 per cent), Mid Suffolk (East of England, c. 3.84 per cent), Bassetlaw (East Midlands, c. 3.67 per cent) and Rotherham (Yorkshire and The Humber, c. 3.50 per cent).

At the other end, the weakest are Tower Hamlets (London, c. –8.42 per cent), Brent (London, c. –7.95 per cent), Barnet (London, c. –7.68 per cent), the City of Aberdeen (Scotland, c. –6.80 per cent) and South Oxfordshire (South East, c. –6.40 per cent).
This profile shows sharp dispersion—roughly 12.8 percentage points between best and worst—with declines concentrated in several London boroughs, while gains are spread across more affordable regional markets (plus an outer-London outlier in Bromley); the confidence bands are modest, but still suggest that the downside risks are skewed towards the southern high-cost areas.

For the next 24 months, the leaders are Spelthorne (South East, c. 8.96 per cent), Rotherham (Yorkshire and The Humber, c. 8.48 per cent), Lichfield (West Midlands, c. 8.23 per cent), Charnwood (East Midlands, c. 8.23 per cent) and Warrington (North West, c. 8.03 per cent).

At the other end, the weakest are Tower Hamlets (London, c. –10.54 per cent), Barnet (London, c. –8.53 per cent), the City of Aberdeen (Scotland, c. –8.29 per cent), Hammersmith & Fulham (London, c. –5.50 per cent) and Wandsworth (London, c. –4.65 per cent).

This implies a dispersion of roughly 19.5 percentage points, with downside concentrated in high-cost London boroughs (plus Aberdeen) while solid mid-single-digit gains are expected across value-oriented Midlands and northern locations; the confidence bands are moderate, signalling some uncertainty around these central estimates.

For the next 60 months, the strongest cumulative gains are forecast in Armagh City, Banbridge and Craigavon (Northern Ireland, c. 23.8 per cent), Antrim and Newtownabbey (Northern Ireland, c. 22.5 per cent), Oldham (North West, c. 21.8 per cent), Rotherham (Yorkshire and The Humber, c. 21.5 per cent) and Knowsley (North West, c. 21.2 per cent).

The weakest long-run outlooks are Tower Hamlets (London, c. –19.9 per cent), the City of Aberdeen (Scotland, c. –19.9 per cent), Barnet (London, c. –10.6 per cent), Hertsmere (East of England, c. –4.1 per cent) and South Ayrshire (Scotland, c. –3.8 per cent).

This implies a very wide dispersion of about 43.7 percentage points, with long-term strength concentrated in Northern Ireland and value-oriented northern markets, while downside risks persist in several London boroughs and parts of Scotland; confidence bands are present but the pattern points to a continued tilt away from high-cost southern areas.

Conclusion

In summary, the forecasts point to an enduring north–south divide: the 12-month spread runs from (c. +4.4 per cent) to (c. –8.4 per cent), widens at 24 months to (c. +9.0 per cent) vs (c. –10.5 per cent), and by five years reaches (c. +23.8 per cent) vs (c. –19.9 per cent). Former lower-price areas—especially Northern Ireland and the North/ Midlands—are set to lead, while several London boroughs (and Aberdeen) underperform. This reflects persistent affordability pressures and shifting demand towards better-value markets, a pattern likely to define the UK housing landscape for years to come.

Economic summary

News

Over the past month, it’s been mainly doom and gloom – UK consumer price inflation unexpectedly rose to 3.6% in June, its highest annual rate since January 2024, driven by higher motor fuel, transport and food costs; the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee nonetheless held Bank Rate at 4.25% in mid‑June, even as markets priced in a 25‑basis‑point cut to 4% in August amid easing services price pressures and slowing wage growth; official data showed GDP contracted by 0.1% in May, marking a second consecutive monthly decline and underlining concerns about the economy’s resilience amid trade uncertainties and the expiry of home‑purchase tax incentives; labour market figures reflected this cooling, with unemployment edging up to around 4.6%, its highest since early 2021, while regular pay growth slowed to about 5%, dampening the scope for household spending.

In financial markets, the FTSE 100 notched a fourth consecutive week of gains, buoyed by rate‑cut optimism and encouraging corporate earnings, even as sterling traded mixed against major currencies; Chancellor Rachel Reeves responded with a series of reforms to cut red tape, ease mortgage affordability checks and launch a government‑backed mortgage guarantee scheme aimed at first‑time buyers; however, cost‑of‑living pressures persist, with domestic energy price caps still elevated despite a modest 7% reduction in July, and food price inflation at its highest since February 2024, keeping household budgets under strain.

Collectively, these mixed signals create a cautious backdrop for the housing market, where mortgage costs, consumer confidence and broader macroeconomic uncertainties will shape price trajectories in the coming months.

Indicators

• Average house prices increased slightly to £269k in July
• Mortgage rates for 60 % LTV have slightly ticked up to 4.17%

Current growth rates

Over the past year, the strongest house‑price growth has been concentrated in more affordable northern and Midlands areas—Blackburn with Darwen leads at +17.5 %, followed by Newcastle (+13.4 %), Middlesbrough (+12.7 %) and Bassetlaw (+12.6 %)—with Milton Keynes (+11.7 %) the sole South‑East outlier in the top five. At the other extreme, high‑cost southern and London markets have slipped back: Islington is down –7.7 %, Hammersmith & Fulham –5.8 %, Bath & North East Somerset –5.9 %, Cotswold –5.7 % and South Hams –5.3 %. This split highlights a continued shift of buyer demand towards more affordable regions and away from historically expensive markets.

Predictions

Overall

The model suggests only modest nominal growth in UK house prices, edging up from the current c. £269 k to roughly £276 k in one year and £285 k in two years, before reaching about £304 k in five years.

Regional

Short term (1 year): most regions see modest one‑year gains of around 2–4 per cent, led by Scotland (c. 4.4 per cent), Wales (4.0 per cent) and the East Midlands (3.7 per cent), while London’s market remains almost flat at just 0.7 per cent. This immediate divergence underlines buyers’ continued preference for more affordable areas even in the near term.

Medium term (2–3 years): over the next two to three years, annualised growth climbs to about 5–9 per cent in high‑growth regions—Northern Ireland (8.8 per cent), Wales (8.0 per cent) and the North West (7.4 per cent)—whereas the South East (c. 5 per cent) and East of England (5 per cent) stay more subdued and London languishes below 2 per cent. The widening gap suggests that regional cycles will diverge further as affordability and rental yields drive demand.

Long term (4–5 years): by years four and five, cumulative five‑year gains range from a mere 3 per cent in London to over 23 per cent in Northern Ireland, with former low‑price areas such as the North West, Wales and Scotland all posting double‑digit rises. Such stark dispersion points to deepening regional imbalances, driven by enduring affordability constraints and shifting buyer preferences over the longer term.

Local

In the year ahead, more modest but still notable gains of around +6–8 % are forecast in Bassetlaw (East Midlands +7.58 %), Knowsley and Blackburn with Darwen (both North West +7.31 / +6.86 %), Vale of White Horse (South East +6.78 %) and Oldham (North West +6.46 %). By contrast, London’s premium boroughs appear particularly vulnerable in the short term—Tower Hamlets (–8.30 %), Barnet (–7.04 %) and Hammersmith & Fulham (–5.13 %)—along with the City of Aberdeen (Scotland –6.16 %) and Cotswold (South West –4.88 %). This suggests that affordability pressures and shifting demand may quickly weigh on traditional southern strongholds, even as more value‑oriented regions hold up.

Looking two years out, the North West again dominates the upside with Knowsley (+14.60 %), Blackburn with Darwen (+13.45 %) and Oldham (+13.02 %), joined by East Midlands districts South Derbyshire and Bassetlaw (both +13.33 / +13.02 %). London boroughs once more occupy the lower end of the spectrum—Tower Hamlets (–9.87 %), Hammersmith & Fulham (–3.50 %), Barnet (–3.41 %) and Islington (–2.95 %)—while Aberdeen remains under pressure in Scotland (–6.89 %). The pattern reinforces a growing north–south split, with northern and Midlands locations likely to outperform their southern peers over the medium term.

Over the next five years, the strongest overall growth is predicted in several North West authorities—Knowsley (+29.96 %), Blackburn with Darwen (+28.31 %), Oldham (+27.82 %) and Cheshire East (+25.85 %)—alongside Armagh City, Banbridge and Craigavon in Northern Ireland (+26.51 %). In contrast, London boroughs Ham­mersmith & Fulham, Barnet, Hackney and Tower Hamlets sit among the weakest performers (–3 to –19 %), joined by the City of Aberdeen in Scotland (–18.64 %). This stark divergence underscores an ongoing shift towards more affordable northern and Northern Irish markets, while many high‑priced southern and urban areas could see real‑terms price corrections.

Conclusion

In summary, the forecasts point to an enduring north–south divide in UK housing, with former lower‑price areas—particularly in the North West and parts of Northern Ireland—set to enjoy the strongest growth, while many London boroughs and other southern markets face stagnation or mild declines. This divergence reflects deep‑seated affordability pressures and shifting buyer preferences that are likely to intensify over time. Together, these trends suggest that regional imbalances will remain a defining feature of the UK property landscape for years to come.

Economic summary

News

In the past month, UK inflation eased slightly, with the Consumer Prices Index rising by 3.4% year-on-year in May, down from 3.5% in April. Meanwhile, the Bank of England held Bank Rate at 4.25% in June following a 25-basis-point cut in May, though policymakers such as Alan Taylor and Andrew Bailey have signalled a cautious path to cuts amid a weakening labour market and global uncertainty. Economic output painted a mixed picture: gross domestic product grew by 0.7% in Q1—the fastest among G7 economies—yet contracted by 0.3% in April, driven largely by a services slowdown. The services sector subsequently rebounded in June, with the PMI rising to 52.8—the strongest growth in ten months—suggesting modest Q2 expansion. Household finances remained under pressure, as real disposable income per head fell by 1% and the savings ratio dropped to 10.9%, offsetting pay growth and dampening spending capacity.

On financial markets, the FTSE 100 hit a record closing high of 8,884.92 on 12 June before easing to 8,805.51 amid fiscal worries and looming tariff deadlines, reflecting investor sensitivity to domestic policy and global trade tensions. Energy bills offered a rare reprieve, with Ofgem cutting the price cap by 7% from July to £1,720 a year for a typical dual-fuel household—a saving of around £129 annually—despite bills remaining elevated compared to pre-crisis levels.

Overall, the UK economy displayed both resilient pockets and persistent headwinds, framing a complex backdrop for the housing market.

Indicators

• Average house prices fell to £265k in June
• Mortgage rates for both 60 % and 95 % LTV mortgages have continued their downward trajectory, now at approximately 4.09 % and 5.09% respectively.

Predictions

Overall

The model suggests only modest nominal growth, with average UK house prices rising from roughly £265k today to about £281k in one year and £288k in two years, before reaching around £303 000 five years out.

Regional

Short-term (1 year): projected first-year gains vary sharply—from barely 0.9 % in London and the South West to around 8.8 % in the North West, 7.9 % in the West Midlands and 7.5 % in the North East—highlighting stronger momentum in more affordable regions. London flats and South West terraces remain the weakest performers sub-1 %, underlining the challenges in already high-priced markets.

Medium-term (3 years): by year three most regions converge into solid double digits—terraced homes in the North West, North East and Yorkshire all exceed 13 %, while overall growth in Wales and the South West also approaches 14–15 %. London, by contrast, still languishes at roughly 2 %, so regional disparities remain pronounced even as growth broadens beyond traditional northern hot spots.

Long-term (5 years): over five years cumulative gains peak at about 21 % in the North West and 20 % in Yorkshire & the Humber, with the North East, Wales and the West Midlands all posting c. 17–18 %. London’s modest 3 % rise underscores that, in the long run, lower-priced regional markets are expected to deliver the most substantial returns.

Local

In the next year, Camden (London) leads growth at around 10.7 %, closely followed by the Cotswolds (South West) at 10.7 % and three Northern Ireland districts – Ards & North Down (9.6 %), Lisburn & Castlereagh (9.5 %) and Antrim & Newtownabbey (9.2 %). At the other extreme, Hackney (London 0.4 %), Surrey (South East 0.0 %), Hertsmere (East of England –0.2 %), Elmbridge (South East –0.9 %) and the City of Aberdeen (Scotland –1.0 %) are forecast flat or in slight decline. This wide split highlights brisk demand in undervalued rural and Northern Irish markets versus very modest near-term prospects for certain expensive urban and commuter-belt locations.

By April 2027 the Cotswolds (South West) again tops the chart at about 15.1 %, with four Northern Ireland councils (Ards & North Down 14.2 %, Lisburn & Castlereagh 14.0 %, Antrim & Newtownabbey 13.7 %, Newry, Mourne & Down 12.9 %) close behind. In contrast, core London boroughs – City of Westminster (–1.6 %), Southwark (–1.8 %) and Tower Hamlets (–4.9 %) – together with Elmbridge (–1.9 %) and Aberdeen (–5.9 %) fall into negative territory. The roughly 20 percentage-point gap between top and bottom underscores a sustained divergence between buoyant peripheral markets and cooling prime city and commuter zones.

Over five years Northern Ireland districts dominate: Lisburn & Castlereagh leads at 30.0 %, followed by Antrim & Newtownabbey 28.6 %, Ards & North Down 27.7 % and Newry, Mourne & Down 27.4 %, with the Cotswolds (South West) also posting 27.4 %. At the bottom, East Hertfordshire (East of England +0.4 %), Lewisham (London –0.9 %), Hertsmere (East of England –1.1 %), Tower Hamlets (London –14.8 %) and Aberdeen (Scotland –17.9 %) show minimal to steep declines. The nearly 50 percentage-point gulf highlights a long-term realignment in favour of more affordable or recovering regions over high-price urban centres.

Conclusion

Taken together, these forecasts paint a picture of an increasingly bifurcated UK housing market, in which long-run gains are concentrated in undervalued and non-urban districts—especially in Northern Ireland and certain South West rural areas—while many high-priced London boroughs and southern commuter belts struggle to keep pace, or even register small falls. In the short term, Camden and the Cotswolds outshine most regions with double-digit growth, but by year two and beyond the top spots are dominated by Northern Irish councils posting mid-teens to low-thirties-percent gains over five years. Meanwhile, places such as Tower Hamlets, Aberdeen and parts of the South East show flat or negative returns, reinforcing the scale of regional divergence. For buyers and investors, this underscores the importance of looking beyond traditional city hotspots: peripheral and lower-cost markets offer the strongest compounded returns, whereas prime urban locations may underperform or deliver only modest uplift.

Economic summary

News

Since the last post the UK economy has exhibited modest growth alongside mounting challenges. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised its 2025 GDP growth forecast upward to 1.2%, attributing this to strong first-quarter performance. However, inflation rose to 3.5% in April, driven by increased energy and water bills, higher business taxes, and a substantial minimum wage hike, complicating the Bank of England’s monetary policy decisions. In response, the Bank reduced the Bank Rate to 4.25% in early May but signalled caution for further cuts this year.

The business landscape has also faced significant headwinds, particularly in retail and manufacturing sectors. Major retailers, including Poundland, announced multiple store closures due to rising operational costs and weakened consumer spending. The S&P Global UK Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index indicated a slight easing in the business downturn, with the services sector showing modest growth, but manufacturing continued to decline, with job cuts at one of the fastest rates since the global financial crisis.

Amid these challenges, the government advanced its economic strategy by securing trade deals with the US, India, and the EU, aiming to bolster international trade relations. While these agreements are not expected to significantly boost GDP in the short term, they are seen as steps toward economic recovery and global reintegration.

Indicators

• Average house price rose to £271 k in March.
• Mortgage rates for both 60 % and 95 % LTV mortgages have continued their downward trajectory, now at approximately 4.22 % (-0.10 ppt) and 5.32 % (-0.12 ppt) respectively.

Predictions

Overall

House prices are set to continue their climb over the next two years, with the strongest momentum through 2026. After rising from £271 k today to about £283 k in a year’s time (+4.5 %), growth accelerates to £313 k by spring 2027 (+15.4 % total). Thereafter, annual gains moderate but remain positive, taking the average UK price to £355 k by March 2030 (+31 % over five years).

Regional

Our regional breakdown shows positive price growth across all parts of the UK over the next 12 months, but with wide variation:

• Top-performers (1 yr):
  • East Midlands (≈ 6.5 %) and South West (≈ 6.4 %) lead the pack, reflecting strong affordability and ongoing demand outside the capital.
  • West Midlands (5.9 %) and East of England (5.3 %) follow closely.
• Lagging regions (1 yr):
  • London (2.1 %) and the South East (0.9 %) post the smallest gains, constrained by high price bases and tighter budgets.

Looking further ahead:

Long term (5 yrs): the East of England dominates with nearly 38 % total growth, followed by the South West (35 %) and East Midlands (35 %). The North East lags at around 17 %, and London again posts the slowest long-run advance (≈ 23 %).

Medium term (2 yrs): the East Midlands and North West surge with cumulative rises of ~19 % and ~18.5 % respectively, while London remains under 8 %.

Local

Drilling down to local authority forecasts:

12-Month Outlook (to Mar 2026)

West Oxfordshire and Horsham (both -0.4 %)
High-price South East markets and former commuter hotspots are seeing affordability pressures and subdued demand.

Highest growth in:

Bath and North East Somerset (+9.7 %)

Cotswold (+8.3 %)

Hinckley and Bosworth (+8.1 %)

Worcester (+7.9 %)

Mid Devon (+7.7 %)
These areas combine strong employment markets with attractive living environments and remain within commuting distance of major cities.

Weakest growth in:

Barking and Dagenham (-2.8 %)

Gosport (-1.1 %)

Crawley (-0.7 %)

24-Month Outlook (to Mar 2027)

• Top areas:
  • Stockport leads on +25.8 %, joined by Blaby (+23.4 %) and several Cheshire/Greater Manchester boroughs at ~23 %.
• Bottom areas:
  • London boroughs (Wandsworth, Kingston upon Thames, Barking and Dagenham, Lambeth) all under 7 %, reflecting the city’s stretched affordability.

60-Month Outlook (to Mar 2030)

• Strongest five-year growth clusters around the East of England commuter belt:
  • Cambridge (+47.5 %), Brentwood (+47.1 %), St Albans (+45.0 %), Epping Forest (+43.4 %), Hertsmere (+43.3 %).
• Slowest five-year growth remains in the North East post-industrial heartlands:
  • County Durham (+15.6 %), Hartlepool (+15.3 %), Darlington (+15.0 %), Tyne and Wear (+14.9 %), Sunderland (+13.6 %).

Note: High-value anomalies (e.g. Kensington & Chelsea, City of London) continue to be excluded from local rankings due to price-point volatility skewing averages.

Conclusion

The latest model reinforces a clear theme: regional markets outside of London are where both short- and long-term house price gains are strongest. Commuter belt and “lifestyle” locations in the Midlands, South West and East of England consistently rank at the top of our forecasts, while inner-city London and North East post-industrial areas trail behind.

As ever, local fundamentals—employment growth, infrastructure projects, planning constraints—and macro drivers—interest rates, inflation, fiscal policy—will continue to shape these trajectories. We’ll return in July with updated ONS data and model refinements. Stay tuned!

Economic summary

News

Since the last time this blog was updated, there hasn’t been too much positive news for the economy…

From the recent budget, Welfare reforms stole the headlines, hoping to save £3.4bn net by 2029-30. There are cuts to be made to departmental spending, although there is also an increase in defence spending. Finally, there is to be an introduction of more planning reforms, which should hopefully boost housebuilding in the UK by 305,000 homes a year by 2029.

Post budget, the OBR released its judgement; GDP growth was revised down for this year, from 2% to 1%, and inflation was revised up from 2.6% to 3.2%. However, the OBR expects inflation to return to the target rate (approximately 2%) from 2027 onwards. These revisions mean that tax revenues as a share of GDP are forecast to reach a historic high of 37.7% in 2027/28—a level last seen in the 1950s.

Aside from domestic policy, on the international stage there doesn’t seem to be a decrease in geopolitical tensions any time soon, with no sign of a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine and the introduction and ramping up of tariffs by Trump – Happy Liberation Day.

Indicators

In terms of housing indicators, there was a slight uptick in the average house price to £269k (January). Mortgage rates (both high and low LTV) decreased from the previous month, whilst mortgage approvals remained flat.

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Predictions

Overall

Positive growth is forecast for this current year, with steady growth up to the back end of 2027, where the average house price should breach the £300k mark for the first time.

Regional

There is forecasted house price growth for all regions and house types over the course of the next 12 months. However, there is a forecast to be a slight downtick in the next 6 months for houses in the East of England, North East, and Wales.

In the medium-term (24–36 months), big growth is predicted for the East Midlands (19%), Scotland (19%), and the South West (18%). In the long-term house price growth is predicted to fall slightly, though it’s predicted that the South West (16%) and the East Midlands (16%) have the highest growth rate. The North East looks to provide the slowest growth over the 5-year period, although it has seen rapid growth since the end of COVID-19 lockdowns, benefiting from the shift to hybrid/remote work and the “race for space”.

Local

Looking at the model’s forecast for medium-term growth (24 months), areas predicted to produce high growth are Northumberland, Angus, and Camden (I’ve left out K&C and CoL for reasons which I’ll mention later on*). In contrast, the lowest growth is forecast for Babergh, Dover, and Hartlepool. There still appears to be a trend of rising house prices in areas where hybrid working is most effective—specifically, in more rural locations that are within a commutable distance to cities. In the last release on this subject from the ONS, this hybrid pattern looks to have remained at around 30% of the workforce.

In terms of long-term growth, Elmbridge, Camden and South Derbyshire place top. South Derbyshire has seen strong house growth for the last couple of years from 2021 onwards: £209, £225, £245, £240 and now £254, with that trend set to continue. Prices in Camden and Elmbridge have remained fairly stable over the last few years, although they are expected to see strong long-term increases.

When it comes to local price predictions, areas of London feature quite highly when it comes to leading the predictions over the short and long-term. This is likely due to a reversal or stabilisation of trends observed over the last few years, where remote work (WFH) has become more feasible and outdoor space is increasingly prioritised. In terms of the weakest long-term house price growth, it tends to be the areas with higher unemployment and a decreasing/stagnating population.

*It’s important to note that the average house price in Kensington and Chelsea is currently £1.12m, down from its highs of approximately £1.6m between 2022 and 2023. The model therefore expects substantial recovery potential, though it’s worth keeping in mind that these averages can be skewed by high-value transactions – including one house that sold for £73.2m, which might not be for everyone…

Welcome to the September edition of our UK house price predictions update. As always, we’ll be examining the top and bottom 5 places for predicted house price growth over various time intervals, and we’ll compare these to the predictions made in the last month (August). We will also be analyzing the broader regional trends across different house types to provide a comprehensive view of the housing market’s future trajectory.

UK Overall Prediction

The updated prediction for house prices by house type across the UK reveals a consistent upward trend across all categories. Detached houses continue to show the highest predicted average price growth over time, while flats demonstrate slower but steady growth. The 95% confidence intervals suggest that despite some variability, the overall market trend remains positive.

Regional Predictions

Highlights from the Regional Data Table:

• London continues to predict strong growth in multiple house types, especially semi-detached houses, across different time intervals.
• Scotland stands out with steady and significant growth predictions, especially for detached and semi-detached houses.
• The North East shows improved growth predictions over the long term, indicating emerging opportunities in the region.
• East of England continues to show slower growth in some segments, notably flats, with some short-term negative predictions.

Overall Observations

• London’s house price growth continues to lead the pack, showing substantial expected increases in the next 5 years, particularly for semi-detached and detached houses.
• Other regions such as Scotland and the North East are showing more steady, long-term growth, suggesting potential investment opportunities in these markets.
• The East of England and the South East exhibit slower growth in certain house types, indicating a more cautious outlook for these areas in the coming years.

The Winners and Losers

Comparison to the August post:

The 6-month prediction still sees London boroughs leading the pack, especially Hackney and Westminster, which continue to exhibit strong expected growth. However, there’s a slight decline in some of the lower-ranking areas, suggesting increasing divergence between high-growth and low-growth areas.

The 12-month predictions show increased growth for London’s semi-detached and detached houses, with Hackney topping the list again. The bottom places have shown a slight improvement, indicating that while growth remains slow in some areas, the decline is not as steep as previously predicted.

The 24-month predictions have grown even more optimistic for London areas, with Hackney and Camden showing significant increases in expected growth. This suggests continued strong performance in these markets, while the bottom regions continue to show very modest positive growth.

The 60-month predictions highlight exceptional growth expected in London boroughs, especially Hackney and Islington, which dominate the top spots. Scotland, particularly Aberdeen, continues to show positive growth but at a much slower pace compared to London.